Strategic anticipation in crisis management through the lens of societal values
A “rational decision”, as used here, is one that is free of subjective considerations of all kinds (be it cultural, cognitive biases, emotion, other influences, etc.) likely to skew the analytical process and sap decision efficiency (an efficient decision entails a balanced comparison of advantages and disadvantages).
SANCTUM’s added value really comes to bear in times of complex crises during which severe challenges (national crises) necessarily require prioritization, for example, during intersectoral or systemic crises, with domino effects affecting separately or simultaneously various matters of concern to society (e.g., health, energy, transportation, housing, economy, education, public order, etc.). In France, the Interministerial Crisis Centre (CIC) is responsible for this level of crisis management.
SANCTUM’s mission is to provide over time the tools required to strengthen the predictive capabilities of said crisis center via a specific methodology and a modelling of predictable situations, referred to as “uchronia”i1 (alternate scenarios). It is not oriented toward tactical decisions entailing the operational implementation of crisis management measures at the territorial level (e.g., the Operational Centers of refectures or local administrations).